Polokelo ea matla ea khoebo le ea indasteri e ka tlisa tsoelo-pele e potlakileng selemong se tlang!

Ka ho teba ha phetoho ea sebopeho sa matla lefatšeng ka bophara le sepheo sa "khabone e habeli", polokelo ea matla ea khoebo le indasteri e tlisa menyetla ea nts'etsopele eo ho seng e kileng ea e-ba teng. Ho lebelletsoe hore ka 2025, 'maraka oa lefats'e oa polokelo ea matla a indasteri le khoebo o tla bonts'a kholo e matla, tšehetso ea leano ho tsoa mebusong, tekano e ntseng e hola lipakeng tsa phepelo ea 'maraka le tlhoko, le litebello tse ngata tsa phaello, hammoho ho tsamaisa karolo ena hore e be sehlohlolong se secha.

Ntlha ea pele, Boholo ba 'Maraka le Forecast ea Bokhoni bo kentsoeng

* Boholo ba 'maraka: Ho latela tlaleho ea Dataintelo, mmaraka oa lefats'e oa polokelo ea matla a indasteri le khoebo e tla ba hoo e ka bang $ 15 bilione ka 2023, mme e lebelletsoe ho hola ho $45 billion ka 2032 ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo (CAGR) ea 12.5%.

* Bokhoni bo kentsoeng: TrendForce e lebelletse hore matla a kentsoeng lefatšeng ka bophara a polokelo ea matla a macha a tla fihla ho 86 GW/221 GWh ka 2025, kholo ea selemo le selemo ea 27%/36% ho tloha ka 2024, ka polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo e bapala karolo ea bohlokoa.

* Ts'ebetso ea 'maraka e arohaneng (mohlala, mmaraka oa US)

Ho latela tlaleho ea US Energy Storage Monitor e phatlalalitsoeng ka kopanelo ke Lekhotla la Amerika bakeng sa Matla a Hloekileng (ACP) le Wood Mackenzie, 'maraka oa polokelo ea matla oa US (tšebeliso, o ajoang, oa khoebo le oa indasteri) o tla eketsa ka 15.2 GW/48.7 GWh ea lits'ebetso tse ncha ka 2025, tseo ho tsona:

Lehlakore la ts'ebeliso: e lebelletsoeng ho hola ka 22%, e ikarabellang bakeng sa kabelo e phahameng ka ho fetisisa;

Polokelo ea matla e ajoang: e fetohang ka ho fetisisa ka leano, tokiso ea khothatso;

Lehlakore la khoebo le la indasteri: le ntse le le matla, ka lisebelisoa tse ncha tsa hoo e ka bang 0.4 GW/0.8 GWh, hoo e ka bang 11% selemo le selemo.

* Ts'ebetso ea 'maraka oa lefats'e

Ho latela Wood Mackenzie Q2 2024 "Global Energy Storage Market Outlook", ho tloha bofelong ba 2024, lefats'e (ntle le polokelo ea pumped) cumulative install capacity ea 159 GW/358 GWh, ho lebelletsoe hore ho tloha ka 2024-2033 ho tla eketsoa e 'ngoe ea 926 GW/2 789 GWh.

Lintlha tsena li bontša hore, ka ntlafatso ea kholo ea theknoloji le litšenyehelo tse ntseng li tsoela pele ho theoha, motheo o kentsoeng oa polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo e tla tlisa keketseho e kholo selemong se tlang.

Ea bobeli, e ntle ea linaha tse ngata

1. United States

* Molao oa Phokotso ea Litheko (IRA) o tsoela pele ho fana ka mokoloto oa lekhetho oa matsete oa ho fihla ho 30% (ITC), le likhothatso tse ling bakeng sa tlhahiso ea lehae le merero ea sechaba e fumanang meputso e tlase.

* FERC Order 841 e sutumelletsa ho bula limmaraka tsa motlakase ho boloka matla le ho khothaletsa karolo ea polokelo ho taolo ea khafetsa le mebaraka ea bokhoni.

* 3.8 GW ea polokelo e ncha ea matla US ho Q3 2024, e nyolohile ka 80% selemo le selemo, 'me hoo e batlang e le 12 GW e kenngoa selemo le selemo, e phahameng ka ho fetisisa.

2. China

* Moralo oa Lilemo tse Hlano oa 14 o beha polokelo e ncha ea matla e le sepheo sa bohlokoa sa nts'etsopele, ho fana ka maikutlo a hore ka 2025, matla a kentsoeng a polokelo ea matla a tla fihla ho li-kilowatts tse limilione tse 30 (GW).

* Litšusumetso tsa litefiso tsa liprofinse tse ngata le kaho ea 'maraka oa bokhoni ho potlakisa lehlakore la indasteri le khoebo la mokhoa oa polokelo ea matla ho fihla.

3. Europe

* EU Renewable Energy Directive revision (RED II/III) ho matlafatsa litlhoko tsa nts'etsopele ea synergistic ea polokelo ea matla le matla a macha.

* Jeremane, United Kingdom le linaha tse ling li tla qala hydrogen e tala, marang-rang a kabo ea polokelo ea matla a phatlalatse lithuso ho thusa likhoebo ho fokotsa litšenyehelo tsa kaho.

4. Linaha tse tsoelang pele

* The International Energy Agency (IEA) e lebeletse hore matsete a matla a hloekileng a lefats'e a fihle ho US $ 2.2 trillion ka 2025, eo hoo e ka bang US $ 66 bilione e tla tseteloa polokelong ea matla, e totobatsang tšepo ea lichelete tsa machaba tebellong ea phaello ea polokelo ea matla.

Likhaello tsa pholisi lia bokellana; basebelisi ba indasteri le ba khoebo ba ka fumana likhothaletso tse ngata ho ntlafatsa haholo monyetla oa projeke le ho khutlisa matsete.

Ea boraro, ho ba le thepa e ngata haholo kapa e fokolang?

* Lehlakore la phepelo: ka katoloso ea matla a tlhahiso ea libeteri ( lifeme tsa libeteri naheng ea China, Korea Boroa le Europe li ntse li tsoela pele ho tla), litšenyehelo tsa lits'ebetso tsa polokelo ea matla li theohile ho tloha ho US $ 780/kWh ka 2013 ho ea ho US $ 139/kWh ka 2023, e theohile ho feta 80%.

* Lehlakore la tlhokahalo: lehlakore la tšebeliso ea matla a indasteri le khoebo le tobane le phapang e ntseng e eketseha ea tlhoro ea theko ea motlakase le phuleng, tefiso ea tlhokeho, le khatello ea tekanyetso ea matla, haholoholo lirapeng tsa boikhathollo, litsi tsa data, liteishene tsa ho tjhaja, le maemo a mang a tšebeliso e phahameng ea matla. Tlhokahalo ea polokelo ea matla e eketsehile.

* Litlhoko tsa ho tsitsa ha gridi: ho kenella ho phahameng ha matla a macha ho lebisa taolong e rarahaneng ea marang-rang, polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo e ka fana ka "taolo ea maqhubu a marang-rang", "standby standby", le lits'ebeletso tse ling ho fokotsa khatello ho marang-rang a matla.

Ho ea ka pono e pharaletseng, tlas'a phello e kopanetsoeng ea phokotso ea litšenyehelo le tlhokahalo e fapaneng, mahlakoreng a phepelo le tlhokahalo a potlakile, 'me 'maraka o ntse o fetoha butle-butle ho tloha "ho tsamaisoang ke thepa" ho ea ho "batla-huluoa".

Ea bone, mokhoa oa ho boloka matla lefatšeng ka bophara o fapanyetsane mokhoa oa chelete

1. Peak le Valley Arbitrage le Peak Shaving, le Valley Filling

* Likhoebo li ka boloka 15% -30% ea litšenyehelo tsa motlakase ka ho tjhaja nakong ea phula le ho qhala ka nako e phahameng.

* E kopantsoe le ho hlahisa matla a photovoltaic, tekanyo ea ho iphelisa e eketseha ho feta 70%, e ntse e khutsufatsa nako ea ho lefa.

2. Batla karabo le litšebeletso tse thusang

* Ho kenya letsoho litšebeletsong tse thusang tse kang ho laola makhetlo a mangata, ho pota-pota, ho qala ha motlakase, joalo-joalo 'marakeng oa motlakase, ka tekanyo ea selemo le selemo ea ho khutla ho fihla ho 2% -5% (ho itšetlehile ka melao ea 'maraka oa lehae).

* Lichelete tsa 'maraka oa bokhoni linaheng tse ling li etsa 10-20% ea lekhetho ka kakaretso.

3. Likonteraka tsa Tsamaiso ea Matla (EMCs) le ho arolelana matla a polokelo

* Lik'hamphani tsa boraro tsa tsamaiso ea matla (ESCOs) li thusa bareki ba khoebo le ba indasteri ho finyella "zero threshold" ho tsamaisoa le ho fokotsa khatello ea chelete ka mokhoa oa "zero-investment power buy share".

* Mohlala oa Multi-User Virtual Power Plant (VPP), o kopanyang thepa ea polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo ho fumana litefello tse phahameng 'marakeng oa motlakase. 4.

4. Mmaraka oa Carbon le Khoebo ea Allowance ea Carbon

* Lits'ebetso tsa polokelo ea matla li ka amahanngoa le sethala sa khoebo ea khabone ho lemoha phokotso ea khabone le ho fumana lintlha tsa khabone ka ho fokotsa theko ea matla a khabone e phahameng.

Mefuta e fapa-fapaneng ea phaello, e le hore merero ea polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo e se ke ea e-ba le mosebetsi oa ho boloka litšenyehelo feela, empa butle-butle e be sebaka se secha sa kholo ea phaello.

Polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo e eme bosiung ba "ts'ebetso ea ho phatloha". Ho tloha ho karolo ea pholisi, tekanyo ea 'maraka, tekanyo ea phepelo le tlhokahalo ho ea ho phaello e fapa-fapaneng, lintlha tsohle li supa qeto e tšoanang: selemo se hlahlamang e tla ba polokelo ea matla ea indasteri le ea khoebo ho potlakisa ho fihla le tekanyo ea ts'ebeliso ea nako ea bohlokoa. Bakeng sa baetsi ba lisebelisoa tsa polokelo ea matla, lik'hamphani tsa lits'ebeletso tsa matla, le basebelisi ba likhoebo, moralo oa pele, tharollo ea ho lema e tebileng ea lehae e tla hapa menyetla ea 'maraka.